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"I'll be sitting in the same seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, noting that if our conversation went well, he might invite the interviewer into Downing Street for another conversation in 2026.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. In the hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and attempting to decipher what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his key political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our interview, which was far more extended than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the new year begins, Starmer seems to have had something of a refresh. Perhaps even just some relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the saggy end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they reckon his political fate are about to improve?

Leadership Questions

The grisly truth for the leader is that numerous of his colleagues think he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would sooner take a risk and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea in the interview on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "evaluated at the general election", arguing nobody would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I plan to guide the party," he said.

The Spring Test

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to argue, maybe too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be held accountable by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, even if one of his colleagues ran against him for the job, should those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to account for his unpopularity by saying the electorate was understandably impatient for things to improve. He aimed to convince me, and the public, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government implemented during their first choppy year began to show results.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't put a specific date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a certainty, that a settlement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His central point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The PM may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering calls from within his own party for a bolder strategy, with increased political vision, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not only because governing is hard, but because he and his team have erred, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political risks as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the notion he would be content with these events seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "just do not have the full picture at the moment".

Some called for him to denounce it prior to the interview. And the government is likely to face increased demands to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also long been simmering pressure in the Labour ranks to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's pursuing that, but his new specific pledge to align more closely with the single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably trigger protests that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to reverse the choices that flowed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will delight some on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to