A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
