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On occasions when the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania expects issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with containers of illicit tobacco hanging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this smuggling operation has compelled Lithuania's main airport into suspension 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are certain they are confronting something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an example of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers before, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus uses organised crime to influence adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are sent from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, security forces patrol in the border zone.

The balloons are most frequent after dark.

Patrols set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any company that can figure out how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."