Behind this Pomp of Putin's Delhi Visit: The Indo-Russian Relationship Which Has Diminished.

This rhetoric and optics from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India hinted at a strong two-way partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the statesmen took a ride together, mirroring a known political gesture. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "lodestar", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th trip to India over his quarter-century tenure and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Chasm Between Symbolism and Reality

However, a noticeable disconnect exists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are actually buying less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two nations signed numerous memorandums of understanding covering migration, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and educational collaboration. But, anticipated announcements on major defence contracts did not materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in deliveries of platforms and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence needs.

A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Weight

This all suggests that the India-Russia relationship no longer carries the same strategic heft it previously possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential barter arrangements and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique relationship peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "special and privileged" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the reality is that their engagement does not have the former importance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened ties with the West.

Diversification and Underlying Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to cut its important relationship with Moscow. But, as external coercion increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both countries are seeking to broaden the relationship into other areas. During Putin's visit, they announced an joint economic program lasting until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, equitable and sustainable". This includes improving entry for Indian products to address a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an sentimental level, a significant amount of affinity with Russia persists, especially among older cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During ongoing frictions between India and the US, where American officials have made critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly dependable partner.

This key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public actions regarding the war have been limited.

Squaring the Dilemma: India's Global Tightrope

This dynamic does not belie the underlying contradictions in India's international stance. The nation is set to conclude a trade deal with the EU, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current talks will succeed, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a key thorn in its relations with the West. However, should a settlement is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will undoubtedly persist in Western governments.