Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".