Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The mean number of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to point to better national safety.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these months is very important,” the President remarked, adding that last month the least figure of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was also an issue because it may hide days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to show their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas remarked.