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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers improving together. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still