Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.